Since he announced his run for the Presidency of the United States, many predictions have been made against Donald Trump in the process – those that predicted his failure have been very wrong. The pay outs that the losers have had to experience has been in readership in some instances – such as supposedly right-leaning websites or radio shows that take a full-blown “NeverTrump” stance to take the hit. They preen about “morality” or “conscious” while supporting the most openly corrupt candidate for President in history, Hillary Clinton (who is also pro-abortion to the extreme, anti-2nd amendment, open borders, sides with criminals who are burning our cities and has been involved in enough scandals that people’s eyes glaze over when they hear them all listed out).

We all know who the media wants to win – #Theyrewithher, and it gets to the point that instead of taking Trump soundbites completely out-of-context, they’ll make up stories to try and damage him. The media polls are being weighted heavily on Democrat turnout even though there is little-to-no evidence that Clinton has the enthusiam covered while Donald Trump continues to draw in massive crowds even in “Blue State” strongholds.

So if you need something to take heart, apart from the shadow polling of crowd turnouts, check out this report from Primarymodel.com, ran by Stony Brook University. To quote:

As the name indicates, the Primary Model relies on presidential primaries as a predictor of the vote in the general election; it also makes use of a swing of the electoral pendulum that is useful for forecasting (http://primarymodel.com/).  For the record, the Primary Model, with slight modifications, has correctly predicted the winner of the popular vote in all five presidential elections since it was introduced in 1996 (Norpoth 1996, 2001, 2004, 2008, Norpoth and Bednarczuk 2012).[iii]  In recent elections the forecast has been issued as early as January of the election year.  Also note that for all elections from 1912 to 2012 the Primary Model picks the winner, albeit retroactively, every time except in 1960.

 

Advertisements